Progress: Historic gains on just transition
The Belém action mechanism on just transition
A substantial achievement of COP30 was the establishment of the Belém Action Mechanism ("BAM"), the first formal just transition framework within the UN climate process. This landmark decision explicitly acknowledges Indigenous peoples' rights, workers' rights, gender equality, and the rights of Afro-descendants, the strongest rights language ever included in a COP decision (Climate Action Network International 2025).
The mechanism provides a framework for countries to develop national just transition plans that protect workers and communities in fossil fuel-dependent sectors while ensuring that vulnerable populations are not left behind in the shift to clean energy. While the final approved wording omitted some important aspects that had been present in earlier versions (e.g., critical minerals, trade measures), BAM is generally considered a significant achievement that started with a grassroots movement.
Historic Indigenous participation
COP30 saw unprecedented Indigenous representation, the largest presence in COP history. The final text explicitly recognised Indigenous territorial rights and traditional knowledge as fundamental to climate solutions. Brazil's hosting of an "Indigenous COP" in the Amazon highlighted that Indigenous peoples are not merely stakeholders but essential leaders in climate action.
Pitfalls: Falling short on fossil fuels and climate ambition
Fossil fuel phase-out blocked
A significant disappointment of COP30 was the failure to establish a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. Despite support from over 80 countries for Brazil's proposal, the final decision avoided direct mention of fossil fuels following resistance from fossil-fuel producers. This represents a missed opportunity that drew sharp criticism from vulnerable nations and climate advocates.
Additionally, current Nationally Determined Contributions, emissions reduction measures in line with the Paris Agreement, continue to significantly fall short of what is required to limit warming to 1.5°C. The UN Environment Programme reported ahead of the start of the conference that the updated targets submitted ahead of the conference still put the world on track for 2.3-2.5°C of warming (UNEP 2025). While COP30 launched the "Belém Mission to 1.5°C" and established a voluntary Global Implementation Accelerator (“GIA”) to drive action, these initiatives lack the specific emissions reduction commitments needed to close the gap.
Climate finance remains insufficient
While the conference reaffirmed the "Baku to Belém Roadmap" goal of mobilizing $1.3 trillion in total climate finance annually by 2035, largely by leveraging private sector investments, it provided little clarity on how to scale up from the $300 billion agreed at COP29. A goal to triple adaptation finance, while welcome, was weakened by being delayed to 2035 and not having a clear baseline, suggesting a failure to match the urgency of communities already experiencing devastating climate impacts. In 2023, adaptation finance amounted to only $26 billion, against a requirement of $310 billion annually by 2035.
Looking ahead
While there was some clear progress made at COP30, this has failed to match the urgency of the problem. The establishment of the BAM and recognition of Indigenous rights surely represent progress toward a more equitable climate response, but the inability to directly confront fossil fuel dependence remains a critical bottleneck.
For the first time, a COP text acknowledged the overshoot of 1.5°C, and that the extent and duration need to be limited. The GIA as well as a “Belém mission to 1.5°C” aim to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement alive, but the voluntary nature of these mechanisms cast doubt on their impact.
Even so, climate action increasingly operates independently of international negotiations. Renewable energy economics have fundamentally shifted, with solar and wind now being the cheapest sources of new electricity generation in most markets (Bloomberg 2020); major corporations continue signing renewable energy contracts driven by economic imperatives rather than regulatory requirements. While international cooperation remains crucial for ambition, the energy transition is achieving breakthrough momentum through market forces that transcend political cycles.
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